I know this happens later than I set up to do it but http://filterbet.win was uploaded and it is functional. I’ll start this off at Version 1.00. Bookmark it and start using it before placing your bets; let go of the bad ones.
It is especially useful if you have some friends that are really bad at sports betting and need to face reality fast. Is the Dunning-Kruger effect really strong with them and they actually believe their picks are golden, yet unlucky? Or are they the kind that only remember the winners? Since the web app is not very complex yet, they will benefit from it most currently. As we improve it more and more, everybody will benefit from it, even the very experienced punters.
Also you’ll notice that I’ve added two methods in which we can collaborate in order to improve it. The application is open source and we work on improving it in two places:
- On Slack: https://gamblersunited.slack.com
- On GitHub: https://github.com/Gamblers-United/FilterBet.win
It needs tuning and improving and it can become the go-to tool for everybody before placing their bets. If you want to participate in the process, go ahead and send me pull requests on GitHub or use the contact form from this website to send me your email and I will reply with an invite to the Slack group. A lot of features are missing simply because I didn’t know if there will be enough interest for the app. I didn’t want to lose time creating something that nobody wants. It’s hard to be objective when you’re the developers, therefore I didn’t even try. The interest might be there though; it had a constant stream of users on it since I uploaded it, always more than 10.
Anyway… Here’s an example of what’s coming in Step 1, quoted from the web app itself:
If there is enough interest for the app, a forth column will be added: FLB-adjusted Probability. FLB means “favorite-longshot bias” but I’m also considering the reverse favorite-longshot bias. In order for it to work, it will ask first what is the sport. If needed, a second question will be asked: is the pick at moneyline or at handicap (and in the latter case, what is the handicap)?
After that it will use the following studies in order to give an idea of an even truthier probability (note that these anomalies in market efficiency usually happen either with heavy favorites or with heavy underdogs):
The favorite-longshot bias has been documented in sports where heavy favorites often exist:
- horse racing (Sauer, 1998 and Snowberg and Wolfers, 2010)
- college basketball and college football (Berkowitz, J. P., Depken, I. I. C. A., and Gandar, J., 2016)
The reverse favorite-longshot bias has been documented in sports where heavy favorites don’t usually exist:
- baseball (Woodland and Woodland, 1994)
- hockey (Woodland and Woodland, 2001, 2011 and Gandar et al., 2004)
The reverse favorite-longshot bias has been documented in:
- basketball (Paul and Weinbach, 2005a)
- basketball and college football (Paul and Weinbach, 2005b and Paul, Weinbach and Weinbach, 2003)
- American football (Vergin and Scriabin, 1978)