Why paid picks are shit and tipsters are scammers

Tipsters are people who sell sports betting predictions. They are sometimes called touts, handicappers or scammers. The people who buy tips are known to have been fooled once and hopefully they’ll adhere to the idiom: “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me”. Even if you got lucky and your tipster actually put you on profit, stop now. It was just luck. Stop now.

I’m part of two groups of people who actually make a profit through sports betting. We only share picks between each other when the liquidity is so high that we can’t move the odds by betting alone or the public is so oblivious to some information that the odds move in the wrong direction. This happens rarely. Most specifically because most of the good picks that we find are not in leagues where the liquidity is decent; these would be the American sports main divisions, some important tennis matches, UK football division 1, less in Germany 1 and even less in Spain 1 and Italy 1; even less in France 1 (I mean less liquidity; sorry my English is bad and I’ve never been good at explaining things). The odds in events with high liquidity are extremely hard to beat. If you’re a successful tipster in leagues like Romania, you will also have the bankroll to correct the odds there because the betting volume is low. For those that don’t know, the process is like this: let’s say the odds are 1.95 and you calculate that they should be around 1.90 in order to break even. The maximum bet is 800 EUR at Pinnacle and 500 EUR at SBOBET. You bet the maximum on Pinnacle and immediately the odds fall to 1.91, you bet again and they fall below 1.90. You do the same on SBOBET. That’s it. There’s no selling the pick in this process because odds adapt. This is how real betting works. You won’t get rich with that. If you want to get rich with sports betting, you’d have to somehow find picks only in events with extremely high liquidity (difficult) or… GAMBLE! Just fuck it and have fun. Some will criticize me for saying this but it’s actually a better alternative than buying picks: bet a lot even when the odds don’t offer value, maybe you’ll get lucky. I don’t see gambling in –EV situations as bad as others see it as long as the odds are not highly unfavorable and you’re having fun.

Here are a few reasons why you shouldn’t pay other people for their picks:

  • You lose money faster (it has been shown that betting always on the home side is actually more profitable than following tipsters; I quote from Spann & Skiera 2009, who also quote other studies: “We present the results of an empirical study that uses data from 678–837 games of three seasons of the German premier soccer league. Prediction markets and betting odds perform equally well in terms of forecasting accuracy, but both methods strongly outperform tipsters. […] Empirical evidence regarding the forecast accuracy of tipsters shows that their ability is limited. Forrest and Simmons (2000) show that tipsters perform better than random forecasting methods but worse than a forecasting method that always predicts a home win (three tipsters correctly predicted 41.09%, 42.56% and 42.86%; wins by home teams occurred 47.5% of the time). Andersson et al. (2005) also reveal, paradoxically, that soccer experts fail to predict more accurately than people with limited knowledge of the game. These authors suggest their finding indicates the experts’ inefficient use of information, as well as laypersons’ effective use of fast, frugal heuristics. Their result also mirrors research that found poor forecasting abilities of stock market experts (e.g., Törngren and Montgomery, 2004) and economists for business trends (e.g., Mills and Pepper, 1999).”);
  • You’ll feel worse because you didn’t just lose your bankroll, you also got scammed and lost the fees to the tipster;
  • Their stats are false; for example if their twitter account actually has a good history of free picks and you know for sure they didn’t delete tweets, it usually just means that they’re in the business of creating a bunch of twitter accounts and trying their luck on each one, until they hit a good streak;
  • As with magic tricks, there are a billion methods in which viewers can be tricked; if you’re searching for it, you’ll be fouled. At some point you’ll actually believe that you found a legit tipster;
  • Most of them have placed 10 bets in their entire life, therefore they don’t even understand words like “liquidity”; they’ll give you picks from God-forsaken-forth-division-in-Uzbekistan, forgetting that you can only place a bet there through Bet365 or some other similarly shitty bookmaker where the betting limit is 10 EUR unless you accept odds that only a retarded monkey would accept. Here’s a list of the best bookmakers: Pinnacle;
  • Most of them don’t even provide a pick analysis. If they would, their thinking process would be revealed as childish: “Yeah so uh I really hmm believe that Barcelona will win this match because they’ve been like keep winning so uh why stop now RIGHT???!? I mean they need this win and also the other team has some injured guy who like really controlled the midfield and I can’t see them scoring without him, even though. Can I have 10 EUR for this picks?”. No, seriously, that’s how they write, because most of them are Nigerian kids and this is all a scam.

 

Here’s a flowchart created by Spraguer that should help you make the best decision if you’re ever buying picks from a tout:

Check my other articles on sports betting from this website and the sports betting guide that I started on Slideshare here. You need to read and practice a lot in order to be successful in whatever you choose to do in your life.

5 comments

  • You don’t know what you’re talking about.If for example bet in Romanian football the limit one or two times, only in your account the odds dropping.They don’t let you to put big sums in low liquidity leagues because they know that a sharp can take advantage.From different accounts you can bet 50-100k in low liquidity leagues without moving the odds dramatically.

    • “Only in your account the odds are dropping.”… interesting… I never thought about this but now that you say it, it makes sense that some bookmakers might do this.

      From my own experience it doesn’t apply to Pinnacle or SBOBET though because I’ve seen this so many times: I first placed a bet on one of them, then on the broker the odds were already down.
      At what bookmakers have you noticed discrepancy between the odds offered in different accounts?

      “From different accounts you can bet 50-100k in low liquidity leagues without moving the odds dramatically.”
      Hehe, this is absolutely 100% false.

  • I placed a bet in low liquidity market with 500 euros max bet 3 times,the odds dropped from 1,90 to 1,70.I went to my friends account and the odds was 1,90.They dropped the odds in my account in Pinnacle.My friend’s account was in Pinnacle too.They say “winners are welcome” but they put restrictions.

  • Good read until you ruined it with “Nigerian kids” have you considered the Macedonian scammer everywhere, yes there are Nigerian scammers on the internet but they are not interested in sports betting. Check most betting tip sites…They all request for Euros, have Macedonian WhatsApp number, do not accept PayPal etc

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